Putin’s Threat to the West

By Kat Gingolaski, Staff Writer

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the conflict that began when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Since then, 41 countries have given military, financial, and humanitarian support to Ukraine including the EU, members of the G7,^[1] and countries who previously had policies against donating military aid like Germany and Sweden.^[2]

In 2020, Russia published a nuclear doctrine which states that Russia may use nuclear weapons in the case of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state.^[3] Speaking at Russia’s Security Council on September 25, 2024, Putin lowered this threshold of a nuclear response when he announced that an attack against Russia by a non-nuclear country with the “participation or support of a nuclear power” would be seen as a joint attack on Russia.^[4] Ukraine gave up their nuclear arsenal in 1994, the third-largest in the world at the time, in exchange for security guarantees from the international community that they would be protected from Russia following their independence.^[5] Putin’s threat, outlined in the speech, was aimed, not at Ukraine, but at the Western countries to discourage them from allowing Ukraine to strike with Western conventional weapons.^[6] However, it appears that the warnings against allied countries do not apply to Russia’s allies like North Korea. Their involvement was officially confirmed when 6 North Korean military officers were killed in a military strike launched by Ukraine on Sept 30, 2024.^[7] Suspicions of North Korea’s involvement began when missile casings were found on a battlefield in Ukraine, marked with the Korean character ‘ㅈ’.^[8] South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reports that North Korea has supplied Russia with over a million artillery shells and Russia has used North Korean missiles during air strikes.^[9] This activity violates the United Nations Security Council resolutions which prohibit all arms trade with North Korea.^[10]

This threat of a nuclear attack comes as the war prepares to enter its third year and Russia continues to make slow but steady progress through Ukrainian territory. For months, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has been asking to use British Storm Shadow missiles and U.S.-made ATACMS missiles to hit targets deeper inside Russian territory.^[11] Putin warned the West that allowing this would be akin to directly fighting with Russia – a move that would force Russia to make “appropriate decisions.”^[12]

Since February 2022, the United States has committed approximately $56.3 billion in military security assistance to Ukraine.^[13] On September 26, 2024, the Biden Administration announced another $2.7 billion in military aid to Ukraine.^[14] This security assistance package includes munitions and support for Ukrainian air defense systems, air-to-ground munitions, secure communications equipment, equipment to support Ukrainian munitions production, and spare parts to maintain equipment already there.^[15] President Biden has also directed the Pentagon to expand its training program for Ukrainian pilots to learn how to fly F-16 fighter jets.^[16] However, the package doesn’t include the long-range missiles that President Zelenskyy is asking for, nor permission to use such weapons in a strike against Russia.^[17]

^[1] Ukraine Support Tracker | Kiel Institute (ifw-kiel.de)

^[2] Military assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion – House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)

^[3] Putin issues nuclear warning to the West over strikes on Russia from Ukraine | Reuters

^[4] Putin lowers threshold of nuclear response as he issues new warnings to the West over Ukraine | AP News

^[5] Ukraine (nti.org)

^[6] Putin lowers threshold of nuclear response as he issues new warnings to the West over Ukraine | AP News

^[7] Six North Korean Soldiers Killed on Russian Frontline: Reports – Newsweek

^[8] North Korean weapons are killing Ukrainians. The implications are far bigger (bbc.com)

^[9] North Korea’s Munitions Power Putin’s War Machine (foreignpolicy.com)

^[10] South Korea, Japan unveil sanctions over alleged Russia-North Korea arms trade | Reuters

^[11] Vladimir Putin warns west he will consider using nuclear weapons | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian

^[12] Id.