By: Andrew Beluk, Staff Writer
Since June 2016, Americans received an incredible amount of news coverage concerning Brexit, the infamous and controversial plan for Great Britain to leave the European Union (“EU”). While it is understandable that the news focused on England, it made it easy to forget that England is only a quarter of the countries that make up Great Britain. While America has been well informed about England’s actions, very little news crossed the Atlantic Ocean regarding Scotland’s actions and responses to Brexit. For example, Scotland and Northern Ireland had a clear majority vote of “Remain” in the EU in that referendum (Wales voted similarly to England and returned a majority vote for “Leave”).[1]
The most recent development from Scotland is also arguably the most interesting. On January 16, after the overwhelming parliamentary defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit plan (a shocking 432 to 202 vote against the plan[2] ), First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon announced that the Scottish government would work to raise support for a second Scottish referendum.[3] Sturgeon went as far as to say that the case for Scottish independence is “increasingly clear” in light of the troubles surrounding Brexit.[4] If this happens, the voting options for Scottish voters would be to Leave or Remain in the EU, as it was the last time.[5] Should the majority vote for Remain this time, Scotland will remain in the EU while England leaves, effectively declaring Scottish independence from England with the same vote.[6]
However, Sturgeon’s plan for a referendum does not have great precedent. Scotland previously had a vote for independence in 2014, an event which grabbed international attention.[7] That time, on September 19, 2014, the results supported “No” with a majority of 55% of voters over 45% of voters supporting “Yes”.[8] Officials in England, as well as then-American President Barack Obama, warmly welcomed the result, whereas Scottish officials displayed mixed reactions, depending on which side they supported.[9] One could reasonably conclude that this is representative of the overall will of the Scottish people, as voters arrived at the polls in record numbers for the referendum.[10]
But with the deadline for a deal with the EU on Brexit drawing closer, Sturgeon has stated publicly that she is convinced that a second referendum is “now the only credible option” in Scotland’s interests, accusing the British government of ignoring the interests and will of Scotland’s people and government.[11] Interestingly, there are recent surveys which suggest that Scottish voters would support such a referendum this time. On November 27, 2018, a poll was taken across Great Britain, which suggested that 56% of voters would vote to remain in the EU.[12] When the survey takers looked at the results from Scotland specifically, a sweeping 71.5% of voters indicated that they would choose to remain in the EU.[13] Further, of the 632 constituencies in Scotland, 422 were overall sympathetic to the Remain movement.[14] Comparatively, in 2016 just 229 constituencies showed a majority for Remain.[15]
If Scotland does decide to break away from England, it would have to renegotiate its place within the EU, which experts have deemed would be a “headache.”[16] There are also fears of a successful push for Scottish independence inspiring other secessionist movements elsewhere in Europe, leading to further legal and diplomatic difficulties.[17]
Sources:
[1]https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
[2]https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46885828
[3]https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-government-to-intensify-calls-for-second-brexit-referendum/
[4]https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-brexit-chaos-makes-case-for-independence-increasingly-clear-1-4857161
[5]https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-government-to-intensify-calls-for-second-brexit-referendum/
[6]Id.
[7]https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29270441
[8]Id.
[9]Id.
[10]https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/scots-turn-out-to-vote-in-independence-referendum/2014/09/18/85cf9278-5c90-4cbb-ab29-4f4c0d4ef949_story.html?utm_term=.31e5544a80c1
[11]https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-government-to-intensify-calls-for-second-brexit-referendum/
[12]https://www.scotsman.com/news/70-of-scots-would-back-remain-in-a-people-s-vote-on-brexit-1-4835465
[13]Id.
[14]Id.
[15]Id.
[16]https://www.cnn.com/2017/03/15/europe/scotland-referendum-european-headache/index.html
[17]Id.
