Dark Times Ahead for Chocolate
Chocolate, as we know it, is endangered because of climate change. Within the next forty years climate change will inevitably impede the future supply of chocolate.
Before we get started, I think we need to address the elephant in the room: climate change. Here is a list of basic scientific evidence which demonstrates that climate change is very much a real thing: the planet’s average surface temperature has been rising since the 19th century; oceans are warming; ice sheets are shrinking; glaciers are retreating; there is a decrease in snow cover visible through satellites; the sea level is on the rise; artic sea ice is declining; record high temperature events are increasing; and ocean acidity levels have been increasing since the Industrial Revolution. Moreover, fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and deforestation are some of the major contributors to climate change.
No scientific body in the world differs in regard to their research on climate change. Even if you disagree with the scientific consensus, I urge you to consider the threat of chocolate becoming endangered or even going extinct. The threat alone should be more than sufficient.
Climate change will significantly affect the world’s cacao supply within forty years, according to recent studies from a wide array of sources, including: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Business Insider, and Innovative Genomics Institute. Generally, these sources predict that annual temperature increases will preclude the cultivation of cacao in the cacao-yielding regions, such as Africa and South America. Simply, long periods of dry weather are not advantageous to cacao growth. Naturally, cacao is the key ingredient of chocolate.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains that the cacao tree only thrives under the right conditions – rainforests. The prosperity of the cacao tree hinders on: uniform temperatures, high humidity, ample rain, nitrogen-rich soil, and protection from wind. Because cacao is only harvested in a select few areas, it appears to leave the world’s chocolate supply somewhat susceptible. At its core, the NOAA explains, that the danger to chocolate comes from an increase in “evapotranspiration.”
Essentially, high temperatures remove water from the cacao tree, and rainfall will be unable to replace this moisture loss. This, in turn, will cause cacao growing regions to migrate a thousand feet uphill into mountainous terrain. In shifting the area of cultivation, this will disrupt ecological and wildlife areas in these regions. Accordingly, this migration of cultivation will have an adverse impact on chocolate prices.
According to Business Wire, the demand for chocolate has risen double digits since 2008 and is expected to continue to grow. In the United States, this increase is largely due to the recognized, or perceived, health benefits of dark chocolate. In an oversimplified economics forecast, the demand is increasing while the supply is decreasing. Market prices for cacao related products are already on the rise, adding the inevitable hardships for cultivating cacao surely cannot help the price of chocolate.
The average consumer has not and will not recognize the increasing price, because chocolate is generally considered a commodity and it is often an impulse purchase. But to all too many, chocolate is not a commodity – it is a necessity. Notably, chocolate is the centerpiece of many national holidays. By my account, giving or receiving anything less than chocolate on Halloween or Galentine’s Day is simply unacceptable, and probably cruel and unusual.
Ultimately, you have a say in chocolate’s imminent demise. Invest in renewable energy, consume less, waste less, recycle. Importantly, keep an open mind. Develop a dialogue with individuals who do not necessarily see eye to eye with you. Be open, listen, adapt, and persuade – chocolate is depending on you.
References
https://www.fooddive.com/news/report-global-warming-may-melt-chocolate-industry/529200/
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-and/climate-chocolate
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-and/climate-chocolate
https://www.ajc.com/news/national/chocolate-really-going-extinct-because-climate-change/SdkEXHTYRPgczUpDnBiqNI/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263855/cocoa-bean-production-worldwide-by-region/
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071615/what-drives-price-chocolate.asp
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170105006280/en/Global-Industrial-Chocolate-Industry-Driven-Increasing-Demand
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/