Brexit and the Expected Issues of an Irish Border

By: Isabella Simon, Staff Writer

Brexit has been a messy divorce between the United Kingdom (“UK”) and the other 27 European Union (“EU”) countries, and politicians across Europe are doing everything they can to sign the papers and move on. The UK, comprised of four countries (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland), has worked to try and ensure they can retain trade relations with the surrounding countries while still moving towards the independence they desire.^[1] This has not been an easy task, and has held up finalizing Brexit for nearly four years. Leaving the EU will bring enormous changes to the economy of the UK, but those changes are triggering concerns to those who live along what will be the only land border between the UK and the EU: the 310-mile border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.^[2]

The EU creates a customs union, creating a “single market” that allows for the free movement of goods, services, people, and money.^[3] The UK’s plan to exit that union has forced customs and trade agreements to be renegotiated, which will mean big changes for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.^[4] Although Northern Ireland has a separate currency (the Great British pound) than the Republic of Ireland (the euro), the two economies are inextricably interconnected. The imposition of customs and regulatory regimes expected to follow Brexit will create new barriers between these economies, posing a real threat of reigniting political tensions.^[5]

To attempt and ease growing concerns, former Prime Minister Theresa May had proposed the “Ireland backstop,” a plan to create a comprehensive trade deal to maintain the feel of a single market and customs union.^[6] Continued conservative opposition led to May’s resignation, and the new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has made it clear that he has no intention of pursuing a similar plan.^[7] To date, Johnson has proposed several potential alternative opinions, such as relying on technology to implement customs checks, but no plan has garnered significant support, raising concerns in Ireland.

These concerns stem from the 30-year war referred to as the “Troubles,” where historic religious and political divisions led to years of horrific bombings and shootings, leaving thousands in its wake.^[8] During the Troubles, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic was heavily armed and served as a home to barracks, police stations, and watchtowers.^[9] The border and its surrounding towns were frequently attacked, and any commercial or personal travel across was a dangerous venture. In the midst of the Troubles, there were long hours of delays, and shipments of goods were often subject to attack.^[10] The agreement reached in 1998, known as the Belfast Agreement or the Good Friday Agreement, brought an end to this.^[11] The agreement created a system where there would be a negotiated “power-sharing administration” that facilitated cross-border cooperation, and ultimately led to a removal of a hard border.^[12] The EU encouraged this agreement, and strengthened relations between Northern Ireland, The Republic of Ireland, and the UK. Since the Good Friday agreement trade relations have been peaceful, but tensions still exist between political groups. As recently as April of this year, a political riot in Londonderry led to the fatal shooting of a reporter, Lyra McKee.^[13] The shooting was attributed to a terrorist group called the New Irish Republican Army, an extremist group that has resurfaced in recent years.^[14]

Those who remember the hard border fear the return of the deluge of paperwork, gridlocked lines of trucks, delays, violence, and targeting of customs officers.^[15] Whether Brexit will bring this is undetermined, but any threat to the current peace brought by the Good Friday Agreement raises concerns.^[16] Ideally, both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland hope to strike a deal that maintains the open borders, but if an agreement cannot be reached, Johnson has stated that the UK plans for Northern Ireland alone to remain in the EU’s single market and customs union, leaving Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) free to strike trade deals separately.^[17] This lack of cohesive policy for the UK seems disjointed and is fueling calls for Johnson’s resignation.^[18]

Finding a solution is of the utmost importance, and the stakes are high. The border separates the two largest cities, Belfast and Dublin, and any border with customs checks will inevitably stunt economic growth and potentially fuel the already fragile political and economic status quo.^[19] With only 20 years of peace to stand on, and with Johnson’s new date to leave the EU set as October 31, 2019 at 11:00 p.m., people are getting nervous.^[20] If an agreement fails, Brexit may “crash out of the EU,” inciting potential chaos for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.^[21]

[1] https://thecommonwealth.org/our-member-countries/united-kingdom

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2019-irish-border/

[3] https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/eu-countries/

[4] Id.

[5] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48826360

[6] Id.

[7] Id.

[8] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46988529

[9] Id.

[10] https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-a-day-in-the-life-of-an-irish-border-crossing-1.4040102

[11] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46988529

[12] Id.